R.I.: Chafee er færdig

I Rhode Island ser det ud til at løbet er ved at være kørt for Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) og måske et lille hint om at det ikke kun er demokraterne der går til yderfløjene. En meningsmåling fra Rhode Island College giver i hvert fald hans republikanske modstander Borgmester Steve Laffey en føring på 17 %. Laffey står i følge målingen til 51 % mod Chafees 37 %. Jeg er en smule overrasket over at Laffey fører så stort men selv om målingen har en fejlmargin er der ingen tvivl om at sejren ligger til Laffey.

Der er primærvalg i Rhode Island 12. september og vinderen af det republikanske primærvalg møder i "slutspillet" statens justitsminister Sheldon Whitehouse. Hvis den konservative Laffey slår Chafee er Whitehouse storfavorit til at blive statens næste senator. Hvorfor spørger du sikkert:
"Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democrat states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democrat nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan. In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance. Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004. In 2004, Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote.".

Update (fra Washington Wire):
"First out today was a survey from Rhode Island College showing Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey leading Sen. Lincoln Chafee 51% to 34%. That survey was based on a random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters and had a 5% margin of error.

A few hours later, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Mr. Chafee, released its own internal poll done by Public Opinion Strategies showing the incumbent leading 53% to 39%. That poll surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and also had a 5% margin of error.

Perhaps the more intriguing nugget from the Public Opinion Strategies survey: Of the 53% of respondents who could actually name the primary election date, 58% support Mr. Chafee compared to 37% who back Mr. Laffey."